Environmental Change
Chinese privet, Karan A. Rawlins, University of Georgia, Bugwood.org
Chinese privet, Karan A. Rawlins, University of Georgia, Bugwood.org
One of the many anticipated, and to some extent already observable, impacts of environmental change is that plants in the Northern Hemisphere, including invasive plants, are likely to shift their ranges northward. Milder winters and higher minimum winter temperatures along with changes in precipitation patterns will play an important role in future habitat suitability.
By the year 2100, under a moderate emissions scenario, a place such as Michigan’s Lower Peninsula could start feeling like the Ozarks, or even Western Oklahoma. To help visualize how these environmental changes will impact species distribution, the Northeast RISCC team worked with EDDMapS to develop tools that help predict the potential mid-century (2040-2060) ranges of 896 terrestrial invasive plant species.
Read this full article to learn more about these tools and how they can be used. MIPN also recorded a webinar that includes a demonstration of these tools.
MIPN staff used tools in EDDMapS to make a list of species with reasonable potential for range expansion in the Midwest based on environmental suitability. These species are grouped by (2012) USDA Plant Hardiness Zone, below. Users should consider these species relative to their projected future hardiness zone (see Figure 2) rather than their current zone. Zone 7 hardy species are likely to be new introductions to the Midwest as a whole, while species hardy to zone 6 or lower may already be showing invasiveness in the southern part of the region. While invasive plants tend to be quite adaptable, some may only grow aggressively in preferred soils or habitat types. Even when there is high model agreement about a species’ future range, it is not guaranteed that the species will definitely spread and become invasive in any given location.
